Prediction on Pablo Sandoval’s New Contract

Earlier today, Larry Baer hinted on KNBR that a contract could be offered to Pablo Sandoval during the annual Play Ball luncheon held in downtown San Francisco before the start of the regular season. In years past, the Giants have made similar contract announcements during the luncheon, so if an offer was made to Pablo, we could expect the Giants to announce it then.

So the question needs to be asked, what would a contract offer look for Pablo? Our prediction is that an offer of 5 years for $100 million would be in the range we would expect to see. This offer is based on what other premium third basemen are receiving, the lack of depth in the minor league system, and the potential payout the Giants would have to make to any other third basemen hitting the free agent market.

For comparison, in the 2014 season, the top paying players for third base are as follows:

1.  David Wright (Mets) $20M
2.  Adrian Beltre (Rangers) $17M
3.  Aramis Ramirez (Brewers) $16M
4.  Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) $14M
5.  Martin Prado* (Diamondbacks) $11M
6.  Chase Headley (Padres) $10.25M
7.  PABLO SANDOVAL (GIANTS) $8.25M
8.  Evan Longoria (Rays) $7.5M
9.  Juan Uribe* (Dodgers) $7.5M
10.  David Freese (Angels) $5.05M
11.  Alberto Callaspo* (A’s) $4.87M
12.  Chris Johnson* (Braves) $4.75M
13.  Pedro Alvarez (Pirates) $4.25M
14.  Jeff Keppinger* (White Sox) $4M
15.  Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) $3.86M (Final bonus payment; Salary is forfeited)
16.  Mike Aviles* (Indians) $3.5M
17.  Eric Chavez* (Diamondbacks) $3.5M
18.  Trevor Plouffe* (Twins) $2.3M
19.  Mark Reynolds (Brewers) $2M
20.  Luis Valbuena* (Cubs) $1.7M

2015 salaries for third basemen are as follows:

1.  Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) $22M
2.  David Wright (Mets) $20M
3.  Adrian Beltre (Rangers) $18M
4.  Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) $14M
5.  Evan Longoria (Rays) $11M
6.  Martin Prado* (Diamondbacks) $11M
7.  Juan Uribe* (Dodgers) $7.5M
8.  Jeff Keppinger* (White Sox) $4.5M
9.  Aramis Ramirez (Brewers) $4M
10.  Jack Hannahan (Reds) $4M
11.  Mike Aviles* (Indians) $3.5M

*Utility player

Pablo Sandoval in Winter League 2014